Does a city leader’s political affiliation have an effect on crime rates?

A mayor’s political affiliation generally does not have an effect on a city’s crime rates.

According to a 2025 study published in the journal Science Advances that looked at 400 medium and large U.S. cities, mayoral political affiliation has little to no effect on crime rates and policing: “Electing a Democrat rather than a Republican as mayor leads to no detectable impact on police staffing or expenditures on criminal justice, nor does it lead to changes in crime or arrest rates.”

Economic conditions such as high poverty levels and unemployment, along with income inequality, are strongly associated with elevated crime rates. Drivers include material need, chronic stress, weaker institutions, fewer legal opportunities and higher exposure to high-risk peers and environments.

The FBI discourages using its data to rank cities’ crime rates. Statistics rely on local police departments voluntarily reporting their crime data, which causes gaps and variation in coverage.