Monday, Aug. 21, 2023
Ahead of the first presidential debate in Milwaukee, does Donald Trump lead his rivals by more than 50 points?
National polls put Donald Trump roughly 40 percentage points ahead of other 2024 Republican presidential candidates.
Here’s a look at two polling averages as of Aug. 21, 2023, two days before the first presidential debate in Milwaukee:
FiveThirtyEight: Trump, 52%; Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, 15% (37-point difference).
Real Clear Politics: Trump, 56%; DeSantis, 15% (41 points).
Here are recent polls:
CBS News/YouGov, released Aug. 20: Trump, 62%; DeSantis, 16% (46 points).
Emerson College, Aug. 19: Trump, 56%; DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy, 10% (46 points).
Fox News, Aug. 16: Trump, 53%; DeSantis, 16% (37 points).
Morning Consult, Aug. 15: Trump, 57%; DeSantis, 16% (41 points).
Candidates in the Milwaukee debate must pledge not to participate in debates the GOP doesn’t sanction. Trump said prior to the debate that he planned not to attend.
Wisconsin has been decided by less than 1 percentage point in four of the last six presidential elections.
This fact brief is responsive to conversations such as this one.
Sources
- FiveThirtyEight Latest Polls
- Real Clear Politics 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination Polling Data
- CBS News CBS News poll finds Trump's big lead grows, as GOP voters dismiss indictments
- Emerson Polling August 2023 National Poll: DeSantis Fades Into Tie with Ramaswamy; Trump Maintains Majority of GOP Support Ahead of Debate
- Fox News Poll Q41-42 IF Republican Primary
- Morning Consult Pro 2024 Republican Primary Polls
- Wisconsin Watch Do Republican presidential candidates participating in the Milwaukee debate have to pledge not to participate in debates the GOP doesn’t sanction?
- Wisconsin Watch Has Wisconsin been decided by less than 1 percentage point?
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Fact briefs are bite-sized, well-sourced explanations that offer clear "yes" or "no" answers to questions, confusions, and unsupported claims circulating online. They rely on publicly available data and documents, often from the original source. Fact briefs are written and published by Gigafact contributor publications.
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