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Monday, Aug. 21, 2023

Ahead of the first presidential debate in Milwaukee, does Donald Trump lead his rivals by more than 50 points?


no

National polls put Donald Trump roughly 40 percentage points ahead of other 2024 Republican presidential candidates.

Here’s a look at two polling averages as of Aug. 21, 2023, two days before the first presidential debate in Milwaukee:

FiveThirtyEight: Trump, 52%; Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, 15% (37-point difference).

Real Clear Politics: Trump, 56%; DeSantis, 15% (41 points).

Here are recent polls:

CBS News/YouGov, released Aug. 20: Trump, 62%; DeSantis, 16% (46 points).

Emerson College, Aug. 19: Trump, 56%; DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy, 10% (46 points).

Fox News, Aug. 16: Trump, 53%; DeSantis, 16% (37 points). 

Morning Consult, Aug. 15: Trump, 57%; DeSantis, 16% (41 points).

Candidates in the Milwaukee debate must pledge not to participate in debates the GOP doesn’t sanction. Trump said prior to the debate that he planned not to attend.

Wisconsin has been decided by less than 1 percentage point in four of the last six presidential elections.

See a full discussion of this at Wisconsin Watch

This fact brief is responsive to conversations such as this one.

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Fact briefs are bite-sized, well-sourced explanations that offer clear "yes" or "no" answers to questions, confusions, and unsupported claims circulating online. They rely on publicly available data and documents, often from the original source. Fact briefs are written and published by Gigafact contributor publications.

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