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Thursday, Apr. 23, 2026

Is golf ball-sized hail expected to increase due to climate change?

Laura Schulte / Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Wisconsin Watch
yes

Climate researchers predict storms that produce golf ball-size or larger hail will become more frequent, thanks to climate change.

According to a 2024 study by Northern Illinois University, a warmer climate increases water vapor in the air, which provides energy for thunderstorms like those seen April 14, 2026, in Wisconsin that produced large hail.

Hail is created when strong updrafts of air are pushed up into the colder atmosphere, freezing water droplets and pushing them around, making the droplets bigger and bigger. Eventually, those hailstones get too heavy and fall to earth. 

“Our study suggests golf ball-size hail or larger will become more common because of more atmospheric instability, which leads to stronger thunderstorm updrafts,” NIU Atmospheric Science Professor Victor Gensini said.

A 2017 study in Nature that looked at historic patterns and forecasts also found hailstone size is expected to increase due to climate change.

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