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Thursday, May. 15, 2025

Is the price of gas in California projected to surpass $8 per gallon in June 2025?

Carmela Guaglianone, Arizona Center for Investigative Reporting
no

While the pending closure of two major oil refineries in California could drive gas prices up over the next few years, there is no indication that prices in the state will top $8 per gallon this summer. A recent analysis from a University of Southern California economist estimated that prices could reach the $8 threshold by the end of 2026, after the refineries close. 

The two refineries currently account for about one-fifth of the crude oil the state turns into fuels like gasoline each day, according to the analysis. The closures could force California to import more oil from out of state or find other ways to reduce fuel demand. 

California’s gas prices already exceed the national average by more than $1 given higher state and local taxes, required seasonal blends and environmental regulations.

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The Arizona Center for Investigative Reporting is the state’s only independent, nonpartisan and collaborative nonprofit newsroom dedicated to statewide, data-driven investigative reporting. AZCIR's mission is to hold powerful people and institutions accountable by exposing injustice and systemic inequities through investigative journalism.

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