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Thursday, Aug. 27, 2020

Have marijuana legalization measures been a big driver of youth turnout?

William Boger, Gigafact
no

Assumptions that pro-marijuana ballot initiatives motivate youth voter turnout are not supported by evidence. Initiatives on the 2020 ballot in two "battleground" states with contested Senate races—Montana and Arizona—have focused renewed attention on the question.

Youth turnout is driven by many different factors. Overall desire for change and partisan enthusiasm tend to have more influence than a particular policy measure. In 2018 youth turnout jumped 79% from the 2014 midterms. In California youth participation tripled, influenced by strong support for Democrats in statewide and Congressional races. Looking at 14 elections prior to 2014 with marijuana-related issues on the ballot, a FiveThirtyEight analyst concluded there were at most small effects on turnout, and that any bump didn't necessarily favor Democrats.

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