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Friday, Sep. 11, 2020

Have incumbent presidents often underperformed in the first debate of their reelection campaigns?

Christopher Hutton, Gigafact
yes

Both Barack Obama in 2012 and George W. Bush in 2004 were seen to have faltered in debate performances as they sought second terms, as measured by post-debate polling. In 2012, 72% of those polled by Gallup gave the win to Mitt Romney. In 2004, 61% of respondents to a Newsweek poll said Bush lost his first debate to John Kerry.

In his 1992 bid for another term, George H.W. Bush was voted winner in the first debate by only 16% in a CNN poll, behind both Bill Clinton at 30% and independent candidate Ross Perot at 47%. In Clinton's own reelection effort four years later he breezed past Bob Dole in their first debate and was rated the winner by 51% of those polled by CNN.

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