Do unusually high lumber prices signal an upcoming increase in ongoing inflation?
The year-on-year change in the Producer Price Index (the inflation rate) for Lumber and Wood Products was 47.6% in June 2021, the highest inflation rate for this category since 1947, when it was 55%. But while an increase in the price of important inputs like lumber and wood products will raise prices and contribute to inflation in the short run, they are not major components of the overall price index. Higher prices by themselves do not contribute to persistent, ongoing inflation since this requires ever-rising prices, not just higher prices. For example, the inflation rate of lumber and wood products was 14.5% and CPI inflation was 7.7% in 1948, but in 1949 the inflation rate for lumber and wood products was -7.5%, and CPI inflation was -0.1%.