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Friday, Jun 5, 2020

Did a JPMorgan Chase asset manager say full economic recovery from the coronavirus could take up to 12 years?

Ercole Durini di Monza, Gigafact Foundry
yes

Bob Michele, a managing director of JPMorgan Asset Management, said that his team estimates that the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, whatever the track of the virus itself, will linger for ten to twelve years.

More specifically, he said that was their estimate of the time needed for the economy to catch up to the pre-pandemic long-term trend in the growth rate of 1.5%, and thus fill in the large output gap caused by the slowdown in economic activity that resulted from the 2020 outbreak.

In December, before the coronavirus outbreak, the bank's chief economist forecast 2020 U.S. economic growth at 1.7%. In late March, the bank said the economy would shrink significantly during the first half, leaving the overall level of U.S. economic activity 10% below "the pre-virus baseline."

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