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FACT BRIEF

Did COVID-19 have a sustained measurable effect on CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere?

By EconoFact
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NO

The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere rose to about 418 parts per million in May 2020. This is the highest concentration ever recorded, despite a 5.8% reduction in the rate of emissions from 2019 to 2020. The key point is that the concentration of CO2 can still increase even as the rate of emissions falls. Emissions between January and April 2020 were about 8.6% lower than during the same period in 2019, yet the May 2020 concentration levels were the highest on record.

Emissions are strongly linked to economic activity; during the Great Recession, global GDP declined by 1.5% while global emissions declined by 1.3%. The declines in emissions observed early in the pandemic were reversed as economies began to grow again. In 2021, CO2 emissions are estimated to have increased by 4.8%.   

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Sources
Nature Temporary reduction in daily global CO2 emissions during the COVID-19 forced confinement
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gases
International Energy Agency CO2 emissions – Global Energy Review 2021 – Analysis
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EconoFact
EconoFact is a non-partisan publication designed to bring key facts and incisive analysis to the national debate on economic and social policies. Launched in January 2017, it is written by leading academic economists from across the country who belong to the EconoFact Network. It is published by the Edward R. Murrow Center for a Digital World at The Fletcher School at Tufts University.
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Fact briefs are short, credibly sourced summaries that offer “yes/no” answers in response to claims found online. They rely on publicly available, often primary source data and documents. Fact briefs are created by contributors to Gigafact —a nonprofit project looking to expand participation in fact-checking and protect the democratic process. See all fact briefs here.