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Wednesday, May 6, 2020

Were COVID-19 ventilator needs in April 2020 lower than forecast?

Mikayla Campbell, Gigafact Foundry
yes

As COVID-19 cases began to increase in the U.S. in March, worries also grew that caseloads would both fill hospital beds and exhaust reserves of equipment such as mechanical ventilators.

A forecasting model from the University of Washington Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation gained attention after White House adviser Dr. Deborah Birx said the government's own forecast "ended up at the same numbers." The model at that point predicted possibly "devastating" health-care resource shortages during April, especially for ventilators. On March 30 the model's authors said the most recent data from Seattle's outbreak had led them to raise estimates.

Even in the severe New York outbreak those fears did not materialize. Early in April, doctors appear to have begun relying more on alternative, less invasive treatments.

Sources

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