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Tuesday, May 12, 2020

Did a study predict that school closures would prevent up to 4% of COVID-19 deaths in the UK?

Caroline Parker, Gigafact Foundry
no

A widely referenced article in The Lancet, a medical journal, cited a finding that school closures alone could have a 2-4% impact on mortality rates in the U.K. from COVID-19.

The modeling study in question was conducted by Imperial College in London. It sought to estimate the impact of multiple policy choices to slow COVID-19 transmission through March 2021. The study presented complex calculations to estimate the impact of school closures, considering waves of closures triggered by specific infection rates.

It did not find a conclusive 2-4% reduction in mortality rates from school closures.

Sources

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