Thursday, Oct 1, 2026
Would ‘Medicare for All’ increase federal spending by roughly $3 trillion annually? | Fact brief
“Medicare for All” would increase federal spending by roughly $3 trillion annually, according to some estimates.
Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Troy Jackson says he supports the idea, which would replace most private health insurance with federally funded “single-payer” coverage, in which the government pays most medical bills.
A 2019 Urban Institute study estimated that a comprehensive single-payer system would increase federal spending by $2.8 trillion annually, largely replacing expenditures by employers, households and states.
The Congressional Budget Office subsequently projected $1.5 trillion to $3 trillion in additional annual federal health care subsidies by 2030, depending on the program’s design.
But higher federal spending doesn’t necessarily mean higher overall costs: A recent Yale University analysis, which has not yet been peer-reviewed, estimated that Medicare for All could reduce total annual U.S. health spending by more than $1 trillion and save an estimated 114,000 lives a year.
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Sources
- Troy Jackson for Maine: Troy's Priorities
- Congressional Budget Office: Testimony on a Single-Payer Health Care System That Is Based on Medicare’s Fee-for-Service Program
- Urban Institute: From Incremental to Comprehensive Health Reform
- Urban Institute: Don’t Confuse Changes in Federal Health Spending with National Health Spending
- Congressional Budget Office: How CBO Analyzes the Costs of Proposals for Single-Payer Health Care Systems That Are Based on Medicare’s Fee-for-Service Program: Working Paper 2020-08
- medRxiv: Projected economic gains and lives saved under universal healthcare in the United States
- Scientific American: Scientists calculated how much money and lives ‘Medicare for All’ might save—it’s a lot
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