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FACT BRIEF

Is US consumer confidence in the economy subject to partisan bias?

By Gabriel Vinocur
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YES

Both Democrats and Republicans express higher confidence in the economy when the sitting president belongs to their party and lower confidence when the president belongs to the other party.

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index most recently documented this phenomenon in the transition between presidents Trump and Biden. Between 2020 and 2021, positive sentiments increased among Democrats from 67.5 to 96 and decreased among Republicans from 100.7 to 58.5.

The partisanship bias of consumer confidence has grown, from differentials of 21 points during George W. Bush’s presidency to 25 points during Barack Obama’s presidency to 45 points during Biden’s presidency.

Independents appear to lack this bias, holding views that reflect national averages.

Researchers at the Richmond Federal Reserve write, “The partisan gap in sentiment is considerably larger than the sentiment gap across income, age or education level.”

This fact brief is responsive to conversations such as this one.
Sources
University of Michigan Survey of Consumers Partisan Perceptions and Expectations
University of Michigan Survey of Consumers The Index of Consumer Sentiment with Current and Expected Components within Political Party
University of Michigan Survey of Consumers Index Calculations
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Sentiment Is Sweet When You’re in the Driver’s Seat
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