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FACT BRIEF

Is there an expert consensus on human-caused global warming?

By Sue Bin Park
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YES

A number of peer-reviewed studies found nearly all climate scientists agree carbon dioxide from human activities is warming the planet by making it more difficult for heat to escape the atmosphere.

A 2016 summary of consensus studies confirmed 90%-100% of publishing climate experts agree on global warming. Recent 2021 studies suggested 98% and 99% consensus.

Scientific consensus is agreement among the vast majority of specialists on a basic principle. It results from a large, rigorous body of observations and experiments which proposed, debated, and refined an explanation of a specific phenomenon.

Public perception often relies on non-expert perspectives. Scientific consensus however, requires rigorous testing by experts to confirm that hypotheses stand up to scrutiny.

The diversity in perspective and approach of climate scientists shows expertise, not groupthink, produces consensus. From careful, continuous research, excess CO2 from burning fossil fuels is agreed to be the main driver of global warming.

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Sources
Environmental Research Letters Consensus on consensus: a synthesis of consensus estimates on human-caused global warming
Environmental Research Letters Greater than 99% consensus on human caused climate change in the peer-reviewed scientific literature
Environmental Research Letters Consensus revisited: quantifying scientific agreement on climate change and climate expertise among Earth scientists 10 years later
NASA Scientific Consensus
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Skeptical Science
Skeptical Science is a non-profit science education organization. Our goal is to remove a roadblock to climate action by building public resilience against climate misinformation. We achieve this by publishing debunking of climate myths as well as providing resources for educators, communicators, scientists, and the general public. Skeptical Science was founded and is led by John Cook, a Senior Research Fellow with the Melbourne Centre for Behaviour Change at the University of Melbourne.
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Fact briefs are short, credibly sourced summaries that offer “yes/no” answers in response to claims found online. They rely on publicly available, often primary source data and documents. Fact briefs are created by contributors to Gigafact —a nonprofit project looking to expand participation in fact-checking and protect the democratic process. See all fact briefs here.