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FACT BRIEF

Is the Republican gerrymander after the 2010 census the only reason for the GOP’s dominance of the Wisconsin Legislature?

By Jacob Alabab-Moser
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NO

Although Republican lawmakers redrew legislative districting maps in 2011 that in effect highly favored their electoral outcomes in the Wisconsin State Legislature, experts have argued that Wisconsin’s natural political geography also is somewhat biased in favor of Republicans. 

A University of Michigan study simulating several different redistricting scenarios found, "Wisconsin’s natural political geography, combined with a nonpartisan process following traditional districting principles, could plausibly produce a plan with a modest amount of Republican-favoring electoral bias." 

Analysis from Marquette University Law School agreed, concluding that Republicans enjoy "a basic structural advantage" and that any map drawn in the 2020s probably would still favor the GOP — even if Democrats got 51% of the vote.

However, both studies confirmed that the 2011 redistricting by Republicans intentionally produced "extreme electoral bias."

This fact brief is responsive to conversations such as this one.
Sources
Dan Shafer Wisconsin Republicans have a real chance at a supermajority in the state legislature
University of Michigan The impact of political geography on Wisconsin redistricting: An analysis of Wisconsin’s Act 43 assembly districting plan
Marquette Why do Republicans overperform in the Wisconsin State Assembly? Partisan gerrymandering vs. political geography – Marquette University Law School Faculty Blog
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Wisconsin Watch
Wisconsin Watch, the news arm of the nonpartisan, nonprofit Wisconsin Center for Investigative Journalism, increases the quality and quantity of investigative reporting in Wisconsin, while training current and future investigative journalists. Its work fosters an informed citizenry and strengthens democracy.
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Fact briefs are short, credibly sourced summaries that offer “yes/no” answers in response to claims found online. They rely on publicly available, often primary source data and documents. Fact briefs are created by contributors to Gigafact —a nonprofit project looking to expand participation in fact-checking and protect the democratic process. See all fact briefs here.