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Tuesday, Sep. 10, 2024

Is the American federal debt growing like never before?

Gabriel Vinocur, EconoFact
no

The relevant statistic is federal debt held by the public as a percent of GDP; debt held by the public because other debt is what one government agency owes another, and percent of GDP because that captures the economy’s capacity. Between the 2020 Quarter 1 and 2024 Quarter 2 the federal debt held by the public relative to GDP rose 17 percentage points (from 79.4 percent to 96.4 percent). The peak was in the 2020 Quarter 2 when this was 103.2 percent of GDP – so this ratio fell 6.8 percentage points in 2 years.  But between 2008 Quarter 2 and 2012 Quarter 3, also a four-and-one-quarter year period, the federal debt held by the public relative to GDP rose 33.5 percentage points (from 35.6 percent to 69.1 percent).  Both of these periods began with a crisis – the 2008 economic and financial crisis and the COVID pandemic.  

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