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FACT BRIEF

Is Madison projected to surpass Milwaukee in population in the coming decades?

By Jacob Alabab-Moser
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NO

Madison's population will still be less than half that of Milwaukee in 2040, according to official population projections by the University of Wisconsin-Madison from 2013. The 2040 projections estimated a Madison population of 281,150, compared with 627,400 for Milwaukee.

A regional study from 2022 projected larger growth figures for Madison, with estimates of 306,521 for 2035 and 345,675 for 2050. That's still much smaller than the state's largest city.

Nonetheless, Madison and Dane County have shown rapid growth in recent years.

2023 estimates show that Madison currently had the fastest population growth since 2020 — both proportionally and numerically — of Wisconsin's most populous cities.

Madison was estimated to have gained over 12,000 people, while Milwaukee was estimated to have lost 2,000. In addition, the estimates showed Dane County — where Madison is located — has faster population growth than Milwaukee, Ozaukee, Washington, and Waukesha — the counties constituting the Milwaukee metro area.

This fact brief is responsive to conversations such as this one.
Sources
Wisconsin Department of Administration Wisconsin population projections by the University of Wisconsin, Madison
Capital Area Regional Planning Commission Wisconsin population projection by Woods & Poole
Wisconsin Department of Administration Demographic Services Center’s 2023 population estimates: Wisconsin’s population increases modestly
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Wisconsin Watch, the news arm of the nonpartisan, nonprofit Wisconsin Center for Investigative Journalism, increases the quality and quantity of investigative reporting in Wisconsin, while training current and future investigative journalists. Its work fosters an informed citizenry and strengthens democracy.
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Fact briefs are short, credibly sourced summaries that offer “yes/no” answers in response to claims found online. They rely on publicly available, often primary source data and documents. Fact briefs are created by contributors to Gigafact —a nonprofit project looking to expand participation in fact-checking and protect the democratic process. See all fact briefs here.