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Is Madison projected to surpass Milwaukee in population in the coming decades?

By Jacob Alabab-Moser
NO

Madison's population will still be less than half that of Milwaukee in 2040, according to official population projections by the University of Wisconsin-Madison from 2013. The 2040 projections estimated a Madison population of 281,150, compared with 627,400 for Milwaukee.

A regional study from 2022 projected larger growth figures for Madison, with estimates of 306,521 for 2035 and 345,675 for 2050. That's still much smaller than the state's largest city.

Nonetheless, Madison and Dane County have shown rapid growth in recent years.

2023 estimates show that Madison currently had the fastest population growth since 2020 — both proportionally and numerically — of Wisconsin's most populous cities.

Madison was estimated to have gained over 12,000 people, while Milwaukee was estimated to have lost 2,000. In addition, the estimates showed Dane County — where Madison is located — has faster population growth than Milwaukee, Ozaukee, Washington, and Waukesha — the counties constituting the Milwaukee metro area.

This fact brief is responsive to conversations such as this one.
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Wisconsin Watch, the news arm of the nonpartisan, nonprofit Wisconsin Center for Investigative Journalism, increases the quality and quantity of investigative reporting in Wisconsin, while training current and future investigative journalists. Its work fosters an informed citizenry and strengthens democracy.
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