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Friday, Apr. 11, 2025

Is the 2030 Census projected to leave historically blue states with fewer congressional seats?

Carmela Guaglianone, Arizona Center for Investigative Reporting
yes

Yes. Current population forecasts indicate that states like New York and California, which tend to elect Democrats, may lose congressional seats following apportionment, a process that redistributes the country’s 435 congressional districts every 10 years. 

Apportionment relies on data collected by the U.S. census, with congressional seats reallocated to reflect shifts in state populations. While some traditionally Democratic states have lost residents in recent years, certain historically Republican states, like Texas and Florida, have gained residents. So-called “swing states” Arizona and North Carolina are projected to gain seats, while Pennsylvania and Wisconsin may lose seats.

Congressional apportionment projections for 2030 are based on 2024 population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau.

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The Arizona Center for Investigative Reporting is the state’s only independent, nonpartisan and collaborative nonprofit newsroom dedicated to statewide, data-driven investigative reporting. AZCIR's mission is to hold powerful people and institutions accountable by exposing injustice and systemic inequities through investigative journalism.

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