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FACT BRIEF

In the past 20 years, have rural Wisconsin counties shifted red?

By Jacob Alabab-Moser
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YES

Voting data from rural Wisconsin counties since 2004 show that those areas have trended to the right in the ensuing years.

In 2020, the state's small rural counties voted for Republican presidential candidate George W. Bush by an aggregate of five percentage points. In 2020, those same counties voted for Republican President Donald Trump by an aggregate of 20 percentage points. 

Data from elections leading up to 2020 — especially on the state and national levels — show how every two years, rural parts of the state have swung further to the right. Barack Obama won 59 of Wisconsin's 72 counties in 2008, compared to Hillary Clinton's 12 in 2016 and Joe Biden's 14 in 2020.

However, analysts say that statewide, the uptick in Republican votes in rural Wisconsin has been roughly offset in recent elections by decreasing vote shares in the suburban Waukesha and Ozaukee counties — and large Democratic margins in the urban Dane and Milwaukee counties.

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Some rural counties in Wisconsin are becoming more Republican, these maps published by the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel show
This fact brief is responsive to conversations such as this one.
Sources
Milwaukee Journal Sentinel Tale of two toss-up elections 16 years apart: The new 50/50 Wisconsin isn't the same as the old 50/50 Wisconsin
CNN Wisconsin Democrats look for do-over with rural voters after Trump-era shellacking
Milwaukee Journal Sentinel The 'WOW' counties suburbs are diverging politically, as some get redder and others grow increasingly purple
American Prospect The rural turnaround
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Wisconsin Watch, the news arm of the nonpartisan, nonprofit Wisconsin Center for Investigative Journalism, increases the quality and quantity of investigative reporting in Wisconsin, while training current and future investigative journalists. Its work fosters an informed citizenry and strengthens democracy.
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Fact briefs are short, credibly sourced summaries that offer “yes/no” answers in response to claims found online. They rely on publicly available, often primary source data and documents. Fact briefs are created by contributors to Gigafact —a nonprofit project looking to expand participation in fact-checking and protect the democratic process. See all fact briefs here.