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This fact brief was originally published as an experiment to test the concepts behind fact briefs.

Readers should be aware that while there is still a lot of useful information in fact briefs like this one, not all of them reflect Gigafact's current methods and standards for fact briefs. If you come across any that you feel are out of date, don't hesitate to contact us at support@gigafact.org.

FACT BRIEF

Has Russia’s invasion of Ukraine worsened inflation?

Friday, May 20, 2022

By Austin Tannenbaum

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YES

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has worsened existing inflation internationally, exacerbating pandemic-related supply-chain disruptions and fueling financial speculation.

Russia and Ukraine are major exporters of energy and agricultural products. According to the International Monetary Fund, the conflict has reduced supplies of oil, gas, metals, wheat, corn and fertilizer, driving up their prices sharply. News of these supply-chain disruptions has spurred speculative commodities future trading, leading to what one author terms "Bitcoin-esque volatility."

In addition to these factors, pandemic-relief spending, begun under Trump and continued under Biden, is thought to have contributed to U.S. inflation. Economists disagree over how much: as reported by the New Yorker, Larry Summers believes it's a primary factor, generating excess demand, while Austan Goolsbee downplays its impact, pointing instead to ongoing supply-chain issues that have made inflation a "global phenomenon," including in countries that did not pass large stimulus packages. In April, the European Union's inflation rate was 8.1% — comparable to the U.S.'s rate of 8.3%.

This fact brief is responsive to conversations such as this one.

Sources

International Monetary Fund War Dims Global Economic Outlook as Inflation Accelerates

CNBC From soaring food prices to social unrest, the fallout from the Russia-Ukraine war could be immense

Guardian ‘What am I going to do?’: soaring prices fuel calls for US government to step in

The New Yorker Is Larry Summers Really Right About Inflation and Biden?

Trading Economics Inflation Rate | World

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Gigafact

Between 2020 and 2022, under close editorial supervision, Gigafact contracted a group of freelance writers and editors to test the concepts for fact briefs and provide inputs to our software development process. We call this effort Gigafact Foundry. Over the course of these two years, Gigafact Foundry writers published over 1500 fact briefs in response to claims they found online. Their important work forms the basis of Gigafact formats and editorial guidelines, and is available to the public on Gigafact.org. Readers should be aware that while there is still a lot of relevant information to be found, not all fact briefs produced by Gigafact Foundry reflect Gigafact's current methods and standards for fact briefs. If you come across any that you feel are out of date and need to be looked at with fresh eyes, don't hesitate to contact us at support@gigafact.org.

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About fact briefs published on Gigafact

Fact briefs are short, credibly sourced summaries that offer “yes/no” answers in response to claims found online. They rely on publicly available, often primary source data and documents. Fact briefs are created by contributors to Gigafact —a nonprofit project looking to expand participation in fact-checking and protect the democratic process. See all fact briefs here.