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Monday, Feb. 9, 2026

Has any country with persistently low fertility rates been able to return them to the replacement level?

Gabriel Vinocur, Econofact
yes

Kazakhstan raised its fertility rate from 1.9 in 2001 to 3.0 in 2023, above the 2.1 replacement rate necessary to maintain a stable population. However, academic studies have described the below-replacement fertility pre-2000 as a result of the collapse of the Soviet Union, rather than a trend towards lower fertility. 

Meanwhile, no OECD country with low fertility rates has been able to raise them back to 2.1, though Israel has always had a higher rate. The average fertility rate for the OECD is 1.43, against 3.3 in 1960. Czechia’s fertility rate, having increased to 1.8 in 2021 from 1.1 in 2000, fell to 1.4 in 2023.

Several governments implement pro-natal policies, such as a payment of up to $30,000 per child by a South Korean province.

High costs of living and a decreasing preeminence of marriage as an institution have been used as partial explanations for the fertility crises. 

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