FACT BRIEF

Does temperature have to rise before CO2 does?

Saturday, June 29, 2024

By John Mason

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While historically Earth's temperatures have risen or fallen after its position in space slowly changed, the dominant cause of today's rapid warming is carbon dioxide emissions from human activities.

Cyclical variations in Earth’s orbit along with its axial tilt and orientation gradually affect the amount of solar energy that reaches Earth. These “Milankovitch Cycles” occur over tens of thousands of years. During a warming phase, they trigger feedback mechanisms that add additional warming.

One example is raising the temperature of the oceans, which releases carbon dioxide from the water. Thus, while CO2 increased in response to an initial warming, it also caused additional warming.

Today’s global warming is not due to Milankovitch Cycles, which are in their slow cooling phase. This time, it’s us. When we burn fossil fuels, we emit CO2 and other greenhouse gasses, which make it more difficult for heat to escape the atmosphere.

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Sources

Science Synchronous Change of Atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic Temperature During the Last Deglacial Warming

American Institute of Physics The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect

NASA Milankovitch (Orbital) Cycles and Their Role in Earth’s Climate

NASA Why Milankovitch (Orbital) Cycles Can’t Explain Earth’s Current Warming

NASA Vital Signs – Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet

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