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FACT BRIEF

Does CO2 correlate with global temperature long-term?

By Sue Bin Park
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YES

While natural variations cause short-term ups and downs to the weather, CO2 and global temperatures move together long term.

This is because CO2 in the atmosphere impedes the escape of heat back to space. Humans added 50% more CO2 since the Industrial Revolution by burning fossil fuels.

Over multi-decade timespans, CO2 shows close correlation with global temperature. However, on much shorter timescales (years, months, days), other natural variations in temperature (e.g. El Nino, La Nina) create "noise" on the graph — the up-and-down fluctuations we see. That's why climate trends tend to be expressed in blocks of 30 years.

When viewed over 30 or more years of data, the dominant relationship between human CO2 emissions and warming is clear. Man made CO2 and global temperatures have both steadily increased since humans have begun to burn fossil fuels.

See a full discussion of this at Skeptical Science
This fact brief is responsive to conversations such as this one.
Sources
NASA Carbon Dioxide Latest Measurement
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR6 Chapter 7: The Earth’s Energy Budget, Climate Feedbacks, and Climate Sensitivity
Facts on Climate How are CO₂ concentrations related to warming?
Geophysical Research Letters The recent global warming hiatus: What is the role of Pacific variability?
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Skeptical Science
Skeptical Science is a non-profit science education organization. Our goal is to remove a roadblock to climate action by building public resilience against climate misinformation. We achieve this by publishing debunking of climate myths as well as providing resources for educators, communicators, scientists, and the general public. Skeptical Science was founded and is led by John Cook, a Senior Research Fellow with the Melbourne Centre for Behaviour Change at the University of Melbourne.
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Fact briefs are short, credibly sourced summaries that offer “yes/no” answers in response to claims found online. They rely on publicly available, often primary source data and documents. Fact briefs are created by contributors to Gigafact —a nonprofit project looking to expand participation in fact-checking and protect the democratic process. See all fact briefs here.