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Please note!
This fact brief was originally published as an experiment to test the concepts behind fact briefs.
Readers should be aware that while there is still a lot of useful information in fact briefs like this one, not all of them reflect Gigafact's current methods and standards for fact briefs. If you come across any that you feel are out of date, don't hesitate to contact us at support@gigafact.org.
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FACT BRIEF

Do red states report higher rates of violent crime than blue states?

By Stevie Rosignol-Cortez
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YES

In 2020, nine of ten states with the highest per capita violent crime rates leaned Republican, while eight of ten states with the lowest rates leaned Democrat, according to a cross-analysis of the latest available FBI crime data with FiveThirtyEight's partisan lean index.

Looking at the murder rate specifically, states that voted for Donald Trump exceeded states that voted for Joe Biden in every year since 2000, according to an analysis of CDC mortality data by Third Way. The left-center think tank pointed to higher poverty and gun ownership and lower education and social spending in red states as possible explanations.

The FBI cautions against using any one demographic marker to draw conclusions about the causes of crime, which they describe as manifold, complex and often “not readily measurable.” Cited variables include:

  • Youth concentration.
  • Poverty and job availability.
  • Education levels.
  • Family cohesiveness.
  • Strength of law enforcement.

Statistics are further complicated by the fact that higher crime rates may reflect greater reporting rather than a higher incidence of crime.

Updated 4/18/23 to reflect the most up-to-date information.

This fact brief is responsive to conversations such as this one.
Sources
Google Docs Violent Crime Rate by State 2020
Third Way The Two-Decade Red State Murder Problem
FBI Variables affecting crime
ABOUT THE CONTRIBUTOR
Gigafact
Between 2020 and 2022, under close editorial supervision, Gigafact contracted a group of freelance writers and editors to test the concepts for fact briefs and provide inputs to our software development process. We call this effort Gigafact Foundry. Over the course of these two years, Gigafact Foundry writers published over 1500 fact briefs in response to claims they found online. Their important work forms the basis of Gigafact formats and editorial guidelines, and is available to the public on Gigafact.org. Readers should be aware that while there is still a lot of relevant information to be found, not all fact briefs produced by Gigafact Foundry reflect Gigafact's current methods and standards for fact briefs. If you come across any that you feel are out of date and need to be looked at with fresh eyes, don't hesitate to contact us at support@gigafact.org.
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About fact briefs published on Gigafact
Fact briefs are short, credibly sourced summaries that offer “yes/no” answers in response to claims found online. They rely on publicly available, often primary source data and documents. Fact briefs are created by contributors to Gigafact —a nonprofit project looking to expand participation in fact-checking and protect the democratic process. See all fact briefs here.