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Did US GDP make a full recovery from the COVID-19 recession by the end of the first quarter of 2021?

By EconoFact
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NO

The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported an annualized rate of decline of real GDP (the value of goods and services accounting for price changes) of 31.4% in the second quarter of 2020, which represents what would happen over the course of a year if that decline persisted. However, change in GDP between just the first and second quarter was -9%. The quarterly change in GDP in the third quarter was a strong rebound of 7.5%, and the next two quarters saw real GDP grow by 1.1% and 1.6% (respectively). By the end of the first quarter in 2021 real GDP had still not fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels. While it may seem like 7.5% + 1.1% + 1.6% = 9.2%, which overcomes the effect of a -9% prior growth rate, this isn’t the case. To illustrate why, if you start with $100 and lose 50% of your money, you have $50. If you then make a 50% gain, you will have only $75.

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Sources
Econofact EconoFact: How We Should think about 2020 GDP Growth
FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) Real Gross Domestic Product
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