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FACT BRIEF

Are we heading into an ‘ice age’?

By Sue Bin Park
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NO

The planet has been getting warmer since the Industrial Revolution, not colder.

Historically, ice ages have followed changes in the Earth’s relationship to the sun. Natural cycles affect the tilt of Earth’s axis and its orbit around the sun. As Earth’s axis becomes less tilted, and its orbit more elliptical, it receives less solar radiation.

These “Milankovitch” cycles occur over thousands of years. Currently, Earth’s tilt is halfway between its maximum and minimum while its orbit is nearly circular.

In the absence of human activity, Earth may have gradually cooled in the coming centuries with phases corresponding to a decreasing tilt and an increasing orbital eccentricity.

However, fossil-fuel burning and other actions have raised CO2 levels to 420 parts per million—far above the 180-280 ppm seen during past ice ages. This extra CO2 has made it harder for heat to escape the atmosphere, overpowering the natural cooling trend.

See a full discussion of this at Skeptical Science
This fact brief is responsive to conversations such as this one.
Sources
NASA Milankovitch (Orbital) Cycles and Their Role in Earth’s Climate
Cornell University Understanding long-term climate and CO2 change
UC San Diego The Keeling Curve Hits 420 PPM
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Are we heading toward another Little Ice Age?
NASA Global Temperature
ABOUT THE CONTRIBUTOR
Skeptical Science
Skeptical Science is a non-profit science education organization. Our goal is to remove a roadblock to climate action by building public resilience against climate misinformation. We achieve this by publishing debunking of climate myths as well as providing resources for educators, communicators, scientists, and the general public. Skeptical Science was founded and is led by John Cook, a Senior Research Fellow with the Melbourne Centre for Behaviour Change at the University of Melbourne.
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Fact briefs are short, credibly sourced summaries that offer “yes/no” answers in response to claims found online. They rely on publicly available, often primary source data and documents. Fact briefs are created by contributors to Gigafact —a nonprofit project looking to expand participation in fact-checking and protect the democratic process. See all fact briefs here.