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FACT BRIEF

Are polar bears endangered?

By Anne-Marie Blackburn
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YES

Most polar bear populations could become extinct by 2100 if our greenhouse gas emissions continue.

Polar bears are classed as vulnerable by the International Union for Conservation of Nature. They hunt seals, their main food source, from the Arctic sea-ice. Human-caused global warming has led to a rapid loss of that ice, making it harder for polar bears to catch enough prey to survive.

There are 19 subpopulations of polar bears. According to the World Wildlife Fund in 2021, 3 were in decline, 4 were stable, 2 were increasing, and 10 were data-deficient.

In 1973, the international community agreed to restrict polar bear hunting, which helps explain why the population is estimated to be higher today than it was in the 1970s. However, that does not change their long-term endangerment if the sea ice they require to hunt is allowed to continue to melt.

Update (7/26/24): This brief has been updated to reflect the most up-to-date information regarding the status of polar bear populations.

See a full discussion of this at Skeptical Science
This fact brief is responsive to conversations such as this one.
Sources
Nature Fasting season length sets temporal limits for global polar bear persistence
The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species New assessment highlights climate change as most serious threat to polar bear survival
University of Washington Rapid decline of Arctic sea ice a combination of climate change and natural variability
NASA Arctic Sea Ice Minimum
BBC Earth Hungry Polar Bear Ambushes Seal | The Hunt
WWF Polar bear status and population
Polar Bears International Are polar bear populations increasing?
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Skeptical Science
Skeptical Science is a non-profit science education organization. Our goal is to remove a roadblock to climate action by building public resilience against climate misinformation. We achieve this by publishing debunking of climate myths as well as providing resources for educators, communicators, scientists, and the general public. Skeptical Science was founded and is led by John Cook, a Senior Research Fellow with the Melbourne Centre for Behaviour Change at the University of Melbourne.
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Fact briefs are short, credibly sourced summaries that offer “yes/no” answers in response to claims found online. They rely on publicly available, often primary source data and documents. Fact briefs are created by contributors to Gigafact —a nonprofit project looking to expand participation in fact-checking and protect the democratic process. See all fact briefs here.