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Please note!
This fact brief was originally published as an experiment to test the concepts behind fact briefs.
Readers should be aware that while there is still a lot of useful information in fact briefs like this one, not all of them reflect Gigafact's current methods and standards for fact briefs. If you come across any that you feel are out of date, don't hesitate to contact us at support@gigafact.org.
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FACT BRIEF

Are the lower tax rates enacted in 2017 projected to add at least $1 trillion to the US national debt?

By Emanuela Podda Ankrom
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YES

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office has estimated the 2017 tax cut legislation will raise the total projected federal deficit over the 2018–2028 period by about $1.9 trillion, thereby adding to total government debt. The Tax Policy Center, a think tank affiliated with Brookings and the Urban Institute, estimates that the cuts will result in budget deficits of between $1 and $2 trillion over the decade.

The CBO calculated that the cuts reduced federal tax revenues to 16.7% of national income, compared to an average 17.4% rate since 1970. Meanwhile the CBO forecasts government spending is likely to grow to 23.4% of national income in 2030 from 21% in 2020.

The tax bill's backers say the deficits now will lead later to more private investment and higher growth. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told the Senate in February that the cuts will "pay for themselves" over time.

This fact brief is responsive to conversations such as this one.
Sources
CBO: How the 2017 Tax Act affects CBO’s projections
Tax Policy Center: How did the Tax Cut and Jobs Act affect the federal budget outlook?
International Monetary Fund: The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
Reuters: Despite $1 trillion deficits, Trump tax cuts will still 'pay for themselves'
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Gigafact
Between 2020 and 2022, under close editorial supervision, Gigafact contracted a group of freelance writers and editors to test the concepts for fact briefs and provide inputs to our software development process. We call this effort Gigafact Foundry. Over the course of these two years, Gigafact Foundry writers published over 1500 fact briefs in response to claims they found online. Their important work forms the basis of Gigafact formats and editorial guidelines, and is available to the public on Gigafact.org. Readers should be aware that while there is still a lot of relevant information to be found, not all fact briefs produced by Gigafact Foundry reflect Gigafact's current methods and standards for fact briefs. If you come across any that you feel are out of date and need to be looked at with fresh eyes, don't hesitate to contact us at support@gigafact.org.
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About fact briefs published on Gigafact
Fact briefs are short, credibly sourced summaries that offer “yes/no” answers in response to claims found online. They rely on publicly available, often primary source data and documents. Fact briefs are created by contributors to Gigafact —a nonprofit project looking to expand participation in fact-checking and protect the democratic process. See all fact briefs here.