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FACT BRIEF

Ahead of the first presidential debate in Milwaukee, does Donald Trump lead his rivals by more than 50 points?

By Tom Kertscher
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NO

National polls put Donald Trump roughly 40 percentage points ahead of other 2024 Republican presidential candidates.

Here’s a look at two polling averages as of Aug. 21, 2023, two days before the first presidential debate in Milwaukee:

FiveThirtyEight: Trump, 52%; Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, 15% (37-point difference).

Real Clear Politics: Trump, 56%; DeSantis, 15% (41 points).

Here are recent polls:

CBS News/YouGov, released Aug. 20: Trump, 62%; DeSantis, 16% (46 points).

Emerson College, Aug. 19: Trump, 56%; DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy, 10% (46 points).

Fox News, Aug. 16: Trump, 53%; DeSantis, 16% (37 points). 

Morning Consult, Aug. 15: Trump, 57%; DeSantis, 16% (41 points).

Candidates in the Milwaukee debate must pledge not to participate in debates the GOP doesn’t sanction. Trump said prior to the debate that he planned not to attend.

Wisconsin has been decided by less than 1 percentage point in four of the last six presidential elections.

This fact brief is responsive to conversations such as this one.
Sources
FiveThirtyEight Latest Polls
Real Clear Politics 2024 Republican Presidential Nomination Polling Data
CBS News CBS News poll finds Trump's big lead grows, as GOP voters dismiss indictments
Emerson Polling August 2023 National Poll: DeSantis Fades Into Tie with Ramaswamy; Trump Maintains Majority of GOP Support Ahead of Debate
Fox News Poll Q41-42 IF Republican Primary
Morning Consult Pro 2024 Republican Primary Polls
Wisconsin Watch Do Republican presidential candidates participating in the Milwaukee debate have to pledge not to participate in debates the GOP doesn’t sanction?
Wisconsin Watch Has Wisconsin been decided by less than 1 percentage point?
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Wisconsin Watch, the news arm of the nonpartisan, nonprofit Wisconsin Center for Investigative Journalism, increases the quality and quantity of investigative reporting in Wisconsin, while training current and future investigative journalists. Its work fosters an informed citizenry and strengthens democracy.
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Fact briefs are short, credibly sourced summaries that offer “yes/no” answers in response to claims found online. They rely on publicly available, often primary source data and documents. Fact briefs are created by contributors to Gigafact —a nonprofit project looking to expand participation in fact-checking and protect the democratic process. See all fact briefs here.