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Friday, Nov. 28, 2025

Does the recent slowdown in Arctic sea-ice extent loss disprove human-caused warming?

Sue Bin Park, Skeptical Science
no

The recent pause in Arctic sea-ice loss is natural variability on top of a long-term, human-driven decline.

Arctic sea ice naturally expands in winter and contracts in summer, but satellite records since the late 1970s show a steep multi-decade decline in the yearly minimum of sea ice. Short-term fluctuations such as changes in ocean currents and regional weather can temporarily slow or accelerate melt, but cannot reverse the overall downward trajectory.

Although the record low minimum ice extent occurred in 2012, 2025 still ranked among the ten lowest years on record, consistent with warming driven by human greenhouse gas emissions. Recent climate modeling shows that multi-year pauses can occur during long-term decline. The recent slowdown is indicative of natural variability, not evidence against global warming.

The Arctic continues to lose sea ice over time, and human-caused warming remains the primary driver.

See a full discussion of this at Skeptical Science

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