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Thursday, Oct. 16, 2025

Could health care premiums in Arizona jump 138% by 2026?  

Tallulah Anne, Arizona Center for Investigative Reporting
yes

If Congress lets Affordable Care Act (ACA) tax credits designed to lower monthly health insurance premiums expire in December 2025, the average annual premium in Arizona could climb by $639, or 138%, according to a Center for American Progress analysis.

The credits are generally available to U.S. citizens or legal residents who lack subsidized coverage, have incomes at or above the federal poverty line and are not incarcerated. As of 2025, more than 400,000 Arizonans receive health coverage through the ACA, and about 91% rely on premium tax credits to afford insurance, according to nonpartisan research organization KFF.

If the credits expire, experts warn that healthier people may forgo coverage, shrinking the overall insurance pool. With fewer healthy enrollees offsetting costs, premiums and out-of-pocket expenses would likely rise. In Arizona, average annual costs could jump from $463 to $1,102 per person.

This fact brief is responsive to conversations such as this one.

Sources

  • Enhanced Premium Tax Credit Expiration: Frequently Asked Questions Congress.Gov
  • Health Insurance Premium Costs Will More Than Double for Millions of Americans Unless Congress Acts, Center for American Progress
  • Marketplace Effectuated Enrollment and Financial Assistance - Arizona KFF
  • Explaining the Muddle on ACA Tax Credits, KFF
  • Early indications of the impact of the enhanced premium tax credit expiration on 2026 Marketplace premiums, Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker

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The Arizona Center for Investigative Reporting is the state’s only independent, nonpartisan and collaborative nonprofit newsroom dedicated to statewide, data-driven investigative reporting. AZCIR's mission is to hold powerful people and institutions accountable by exposing injustice and systemic inequities through investigative journalism.

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